Last week was, Debby, will this week be Ernesto?
Seven days after Debby's first landfall as a hurricane in Florida, then a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina, the National Hurricane Center released its last advisory on Debby on Aug. 9. The storm brought historic rainfall from Florida to the Carolinas.
A week later, experts say to keep an eye on the tropics.
The National Hurricane Center was tracking a tropical wave that has a high formation for development. At 5 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 11, the hurricane center issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The next named storm for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Ernesto.
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Tropical Storm Debby made its second landfall just before 2 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 8, near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. Sustained winds were 50 mph.
Debby's first landfall was as a hurricane in Steinhatchee, Florida, around 7 a.m. Monday, Aug. 5. Sustained winds were 80 mph.
Here's the Sunday, Aug. 11, update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami (the graphic below will automatically update with each tropical weather outlook from the hurricane center):
Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a little less than 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days is high at 90 percent.
Colorado State University predicts 85% chance for hurricane activity through Aug. 19
CSU forecasters predict there is an 85% chance for hurricane activity from Aug. 6 through Aug. 19.
"The primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in early- to mid-August is in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles."
The next two-week forecast will be released Aug. 20 for Aug. 20-Sept. 2.
On Aug. 6, CSU updated its seasonal forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing the predicted number of named storms from 25 to 23 but maintaining its forecast for 12 hurricane and six major hurricanes.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical wave in the Atlantic.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
NOAA updates 2024 hurricane season forecast
NOAAhas updated its prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, more than two months and four named storms after itsfirst prediction was released in May.
This season could "rank among the busiest on record," NOAA announced Aug. 8, while updating its prediction on the number of named storms slightly lower but increasing the chance for anabove-normal season to 90%.
Here's the latest forecast:
- Named storms: 17-24
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 90%
- Near normal season: 10%
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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